⚠️ Marginal — depends on retention improvements
LTV:CAC 1.51× below 3× target. Improve retention or reduce CAC to unlock scale.
Scorecard
Gross Margin
70.1%
healthy
Strong for SaaS (>70%)
LTV : CAC
1.51×
marginal
Marginal (1–3×)
Payback Period
5.9 mo
healthy
Strong (≤12 mo) · SaaS
Unit Contribution
€48
healthy
First purchase net positive
Confidence & outcome range
Data-backed · 100%
Most inputs reflect tracked data — high model reliability
| Figure | Reported | Range |
|---|
| Revenue | €18,650 | €15,853 – €21,448 (±15%) |
| Net profit | €1,192 | €1,013 – €1,371 (±15%) |
| LTV:CAC | 1.51× | 1.28× – 1.74× (±15%) |
| Payback | 5.9 mo | 5.0 mo – 6.8 mo (±15%) |
Financial figures
Unit economics
Channel Economics
paid_social
Weakest link: This channel reaches people but isn't earning clicks — the ad may not communicate the subscription's value clearly enough. Test creative that leads with the core benefit.
email
Weakest link: Clicks aren't converting into trial or signup starts — the landing page is losing prospects before they start. Reduce friction in the signup flow or clarify pricing.
Break-even
Above break-even but thin buffer (×1.1). Safety: €2,099/mo.
| Break-even revenue | €16,551/mo |
| Break-even units | 666 |
| Time to break-even | Now |
Gap analysis
Close the LTV:CAC gap
- Improve gross margin — 70.1% → 95.0% (+24.9pp)
Raise gross margin 70.1% → 95.0% — reduce COGS or raise prices
- Reduce CAC — €95 → €48 (50% cut)
Cut CAC from €95 to €48 — 50% reduction
- Reduce monthly churn — 20.5%/mo → 6.1%/mo (−14.4pp/mo)
Reduce churn 20.5% → 6.1%/mo — lifespan 6 → 16 months
Patterns
Scale stress test
1× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
2× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
3× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
5× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
10× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
Unit economics hold up to 1× today's spend, then fall below the healthy LTV:CAC threshold. This stress-tests acquisition-cost saturation only — it holds per-customer margin constant, not pricing or COGS.
Sensitivity
CAC
| CAC | LTV:CAC | Δ vs. current |
|---|
| €19 | 7.53× | +6.03× |
| €57 | 2.51× | +1.00× |
| €95 (current) | 1.51× | -0.00× |
| €190 | 0.75× | -0.76× |
| €285 | 0.50× | -1.01× |
Churn rate
| Churn | Avg lifespan | LTV:CAC |
|---|
| 4.1%/mo | 19.0mo | 3.49× |
| 12.3%/mo | 8.1mo | 1.48× |
| 20.5%/mo (current) | 4.9mo | 0.90× |
| 35.25%/mo | 2.8mo | 0.52× |
| 50%/mo | 2.0mo | 0.37× |
Warnings & diagnostics
- warnNew subscribers (78) < monthly churn (~154) — subscriber base is shrinking by ~76/mo.
- strategy"Starter": LTV €56 < CAC €95 (blended) — this tier loses money per acquired subscriber while the blended average may look healthy. Reduce CAC, raise price, or improve retention for this tier.
- warn"Starter": monthly churn 23% ≈ 96% annually — most subscribers in this tier leave within a year. Prioritize onboarding and activation.
- strategy"Pro": monthly churn 6% = 52% annually — even at strong LTV:CAC the acquisition engine must fully replace this attrition every month. Payback requires strong early retention milestones.
- strategyLTV depends 88% on long-term retention — only 12% is realized in the first period. Any churn acceleration will materially cut LTV:CAC. Validate with actual cohort data before fundraising.
- strategyPayback 5.9 mo exceeds the modeled subscriber lifespan of 5.9 months — the average subscriber cancels before CAC is recovered. Reduce CAC, improve margin per subscriber, or reduce churn to make acquisition viable.
- strategyAd spend is 57% of gross margin — acquisition consumes more than half of what the business earns. This ratio must fall as revenue scales or the model never reaches self-funding profitability.
- Blended subscriber lifespan: 5.9 months (subscriber-weighted, 36-mo cap).
- Monthly churn: ~154. Need ≥154 new subs/mo to hold the base stable.
- New subs (78) < churn (~154) — subscriber base is shrinking.
- Profitability 6.4% — on the edge. Small changes swing to loss.
- Payback ratio 1.5× — marginal. One bad month erases the buffer.
Inputs
| Field | Value | Unit |
|---|
| Starter — Name | Starter | |
| Starter — Monthly price | 19 | € |
| Starter — Current subscribers | 640 | |
| Starter — Monthly churn rate | 23 | % |
| Starter — Margin rate | 68 | % |
| Starter — New subscribers/month (this tier) | — | |
| Starter — Ad budget (this tier) | — | € |
| Starter — Refund / chargeback rate (this tier) | — | % |
| Starter — Monthly upgrade rate to next tier | — | % |
| Pro — Name | Pro | |
| Pro — Monthly price | 59 | € |
| Pro — Current subscribers | 110 | |
| Pro — Monthly churn rate | 6 | % |
| Pro — Margin rate | 74 | % |
| Pro — New subscribers/month (this tier) | — | |
| Pro — Ad budget (this tier) | — | € |
| Pro — Refund / chargeback rate (this tier) | — | % |
| Pro — Monthly upgrade rate to next tier | — | % |
| New subscribers/month | 78 | |
| Monthly fixed overhead | 4,200 | € |
| Monthly ad budget | 7,400 | € |
| Tax rate | 19 | % |
| Refund / chargeback rate | 3 | % |
| Payment processor fee | 3 | % |
| LTV horizon (months) | 36 | |
| Upfront / annual billing share | 0 | % |
| paid_social — Channel | paid_social | |
| paid_social — Spend | 4,200 | € |
| paid_social — Reach | 210,000 | |
| paid_social — Clicks | 3,150 | |
| paid_social — Leads | 410 | |
| paid_social — Conversions | 5 | |
| paid_social — Revenue | 145 | € |
| email — Channel | email | |
| email — Clicks | 1,850 | |
| email — Leads | 290 | |
| email — Conversions | 9 | |
| email — Revenue | 261 | € |
Formula reference
Core Economics
| Gross Margin | = Revenue − COGS |
| Margin Rate | = Gross Margin ÷ Revenue × 100 |
| Net Profit | = Revenue − COGS − Fixed Costs |
| Profitability | = Net Profit ÷ Revenue × 100 |
| Conversion Rate | = Sales ÷ Leads × 100 |
Customer Acquisition
| CAC (Incremental) | = Ad Budget ÷ Customers from paid ads |
| CAC (Blended) | = Ad Budget ÷ All new customers (incl. organic) |
| ROMI | = (Revenue from ads − COGS − Ad Budget) ÷ Ad Budget × 100 |
Lifetime Value
| LTV (repeat) | = Margin/sale × Avg frequency × Avg lifespan |
| LTV (subscription) | = (Margin/mo) × [1−(1−churn)^T] ÷ churn — capped at T months |
| LTV:CAC | = LTV ÷ CAC — <1 unprofitable · 1–3 marginal · ≥3 healthy · ≥5 excellent |
| Payback Period | = CAC ÷ Margin per month (months to recover acquisition cost) |
| Unit Contribution | = LTV − CAC (net economics per customer) |
Break-Even
| BEP Revenue (profit tax) | = Fixed Costs ÷ Margin Rate |
| BEP Revenue (revenue tax) | = Fixed Costs ÷ (Margin Rate − Tax Rate) |
| BEP Units | = BEP Revenue ÷ Avg Order Value |
| Time to BEP | = ⌈log(BEP Rev ÷ Current Rev) ÷ log(1 + g%)⌉ months at growth rate g |
Channel Economics
| Cost per Reach | = Spend ÷ Reach — lower is better; banded relative to other channels in the same audit, not a fixed benchmark |
| Click-Through Rate | = Clicks ÷ Reach × 100 |
| Lead Conversion Rate | = Leads ÷ Clicks × 100 |
| Close Rate | = Conversions ÷ Leads × 100 |
| Channel AOV | = Revenue ÷ Conversions |
Confidence & Ranges
| Confidence Score | 0–100: revenue & sales 25% · costs 25% · CAC/leads 30% · lifespan/repeat 20% |
| Outcome Range | ±15% (score ≥75) · ±25% (score ≥45) · ±40% (score <45) |
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