❌ Not scalable with current CAC
LTV:CAC 0.73× — each acquisition loses money before repeats · unit contribution -€9. Fix CAC or raise first-sale margin before scaling spend.
Scorecard
Gross Margin
46.2%
healthy
Strong for services (>40%)
LTV : CAC
0.73×
unprofitable
Unprofitable (<1×)
Payback Period
1.4 mo
healthy
Strong (≤6 mo) · services
Unit Contribution
-€9
unprofitable
First purchase underwater — full LTV must recover CAC
Confidence & outcome range
Data-backed · 100%
Most inputs reflect tracked data — high model reliability
| Figure | Reported | Range |
|---|
| Revenue | €24,689 | €20,986 – €28,392 (±15%) |
| Net profit | €1,119 | €951 – €1,287 (±15%) |
| LTV:CAC | 0.73× | 0.62× – 0.84× (±15%) |
| Payback | 1.4 mo | 1.2 mo – 1.6 mo (±15%) |
Financial figures
Unit economics
Channel Economics
paid_search
Weakest link: Cost per person reached is the highest of the channels compared here — spend increases on this channel are unlikely to buy proportionally more reach. Shift budget to a channel with better reach economics.
paid_social
Weakest link: This channel reaches prospects but few click through — the message isn't resonating with this audience. Test different positioning or creative for this channel specifically.
referral
Weakest link: Cost per person reached is the highest of the channels compared here — spend increases on this channel are unlikely to buy proportionally more reach. Shift budget to a channel with better reach economics.
Break-even
Above break-even but thin buffer (×1.1). Safety: €2,989/mo.
| Break-even revenue | €21,700/mo |
| Break-even units | 396 |
| Time to break-even | Now |
Gap analysis
Close the LTV:CAC gap
- Reduce CAC — €33 → €8 (76% cut)
Cut CAC from €33 to €8 — 76% reduction
- Improve gross margin — 46.2% → 95.0% (+48.8pp)
Raise gross margin 46.2% → 95.0% — reduce COGS or raise prices
- Improve conversion — 4.0% → 16.4% (+12.4pp)
Raise conversion 4.0% → 16.4% — same budget, 313% more customers
Patterns
- Margin Trap — Gross margin 46.2% is above the services benchmark — your product economics are not the problem.
Focus entirely on acquisition efficiency (conversion rate, channel mix, CAC reduction). Further COGS work yields diminishing returns here.
- Conversion Bottleneck — Conversion 4.0% is below the services floor (8.0%). At market-floor conversion, effective CAC would drop to €16 and LTV:CAC would reach 1.47× — without spending more.
Landing page optimization, offer clarity, or funnel shortening before increasing ad spend.
Combined path
Conversion +6.2pp (4.0% → 10.2%)
CAC −38% (€33 → €20)
Combined: half the effort of each solo path — together closes the full gap
Scale stress test
1× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
2× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
3× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
5× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
10× spend Below healthy LTV:CAC threshold
Unit economics hold up to 1× today's spend, then fall below the healthy LTV:CAC threshold. This stress-tests acquisition-cost saturation only — it holds per-customer margin constant, not pricing or COGS.
Sensitivity
CAC
| CAC | LTV:CAC | Δ vs. current |
|---|
| €7 | 3.39× | +2.66× |
| €20 | 1.19× | +0.46× |
| €33 (current) | 0.72× | -0.01× |
| €66 | 0.36× | -0.36× |
| €98 | 0.24× | -0.48× |
Conversion rate
| Conversion | New CAC | LTV:CAC |
|---|
| 0.8% | €162 | 0.15× |
| 2.4% | €54 | 0.44× |
| 4% (current) | €32 | 0.73× |
| 11.9% | €11 | 2.18× |
| 19.8% | €7 | 3.63× |
Repeat rate
| Repeat rate | Returning clients | Revenue share |
|---|
| 4% | 14 | 4.5% |
| 13% | 51 | 14.8% |
| 22% (current) | 96 | 24.6% |
| 44% | 267 | 47.6% |
| 66% | 660 | 69.2% |
Warnings & diagnostics
- strategyMargin is strong (46%) but conversion is 4.0% — below the 8% market floor. Unit economics are not the constraint; the acquisition funnel is. Fix lead quality and messaging before raising budget.
- strategyAd spend is 60% of gross margin — acquisition consumes more than half of what the business earns. This ratio must fall as revenue scales or the model never reaches self-funding profitability.
- strategyROMI is negative while the business is profitable overall — current ad spend is value-destroying. Pause or retest the channel before scaling budget.
- Only 24% from returning clients — costly to rely on new acquisition only.
- Profitability 4.5% — on the edge. Small changes swing to loss.
- Payback ratio 0.7× — ads are not paying off.
Inputs
| Field | Value | Unit |
|---|
| New clients/month | 340 | |
| New client avg order value | 55 | € |
| Cost of goods sold — new client | 31 | € |
| Returning clients/month | 95 | |
| Returning client avg order value | 63 | € |
| Cost of goods sold — returning client | 28 | € |
| Monthly fixed overhead | 3,180 | € |
| Tax rate | 19 | % |
| Monthly ad budget | 6,850 | € |
| Leads per month | 5,300 | |
| New clients from paid ads | 210 | |
| Avg client lifespan (months) | 5 | |
| Upfront / deposit share | 0 | % |
| paid_search — Channel | paid_search | |
| paid_search — Reach constraint | budget | |
| paid_search — Spend | 3,120 | € |
| paid_search — Reach | 48,500 | |
| paid_search — Clicks | 2,180 | |
| paid_search — Leads | 430 | |
| paid_search — Conversions | 26 | |
| paid_search — Revenue | 1,503 | € |
| paid_social — Channel | paid_social | |
| paid_social — Reach constraint | budget | |
| paid_social — Spend | 2,380 | € |
| paid_social — Reach | 61,200 | |
| paid_social — Clicks | 796 | |
| paid_social — Leads | 119 | |
| paid_social — Conversions | 2 | |
| paid_social — Revenue | 122 | € |
| referral — Channel | referral | |
| referral — Reach constraint | budget | |
| referral — Spend | 1,350 | € |
| referral — Reach | 8,900 | |
| referral — Clicks | 534 | |
| referral — Leads | 133 | |
| referral — Conversions | 5 | |
| referral — Revenue | 320 | € |
Formula reference
Core Economics
| Gross Margin | = Revenue − COGS |
| Margin Rate | = Gross Margin ÷ Revenue × 100 |
| Net Profit | = Revenue − COGS − Fixed Costs |
| Profitability | = Net Profit ÷ Revenue × 100 |
| Conversion Rate | = Sales ÷ Leads × 100 |
Customer Acquisition
| CAC (Incremental) | = Ad Budget ÷ Customers from paid ads |
| CAC (Blended) | = Ad Budget ÷ All new customers (incl. organic) |
| ROMI | = (Revenue from ads − COGS − Ad Budget) ÷ Ad Budget × 100 |
Lifetime Value
| LTV (repeat) | = Margin/sale × Avg frequency × Avg lifespan |
| LTV (subscription) | = (Margin/mo) × [1−(1−churn)^T] ÷ churn — capped at T months |
| LTV:CAC | = LTV ÷ CAC — <1 unprofitable · 1–3 marginal · ≥3 healthy · ≥5 excellent |
| Payback Period | = CAC ÷ Margin per month (months to recover acquisition cost) |
| Unit Contribution | = LTV − CAC (net economics per customer) |
Break-Even
| BEP Revenue (profit tax) | = Fixed Costs ÷ Margin Rate |
| BEP Revenue (revenue tax) | = Fixed Costs ÷ (Margin Rate − Tax Rate) |
| BEP Units | = BEP Revenue ÷ Avg Order Value |
| Time to BEP | = ⌈log(BEP Rev ÷ Current Rev) ÷ log(1 + g%)⌉ months at growth rate g |
Channel Economics
| Cost per Reach | = Spend ÷ Reach — lower is better; banded relative to other channels in the same audit, not a fixed benchmark |
| Click-Through Rate | = Clicks ÷ Reach × 100 |
| Lead Conversion Rate | = Leads ÷ Clicks × 100 |
| Close Rate | = Conversions ÷ Leads × 100 |
| Channel AOV | = Revenue ÷ Conversions |
Confidence & Ranges
| Confidence Score | 0–100: revenue & sales 25% · costs 25% · CAC/leads 30% · lifespan/repeat 20% |
| Outcome Range | ±15% (score ≥75) · ±25% (score ≥45) · ±40% (score <45) |
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